conflit du tigré - Tigray Conflict

« Tigray Conflict The Tigray conflict is a civil war that took place in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.

It pitted Ethiopian government forces against the Tigrayan minority behind the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

The war lasted 2 years and took place between November 2020 and November 2022.

Tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers were killed (600,000 according to official figures), millions were internally displaced and 61,000 people fled to Sudan.

The fighting has plunged the north of the country into a deep humanitarian crisis, including famine. In this article, we'll look at the roots of the conflict, how it unfolded, the interests of the parties involved, the resolution process and its implementation, and a possible revision of the agreements. I- Roots of conflict Ethiopia was under the authoritarian rule of dictator Mengisu's Derg movement for 20 years, until 1991, when the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a political coalition of several ethnic parties including the PFLT, the Oromo Liberation Front, the Amhara National Democratic Movement and the Southern Ethiopian Peoples' Democratic Party, toppled the government.

After taking power, the EPRDF set up a federal system based on the recognition of ethnic identities and the creation of autonomous regions.

Henceforth, Ethiopia is a federated state made up of 13 provinces (10 before the start of the War), all corresponding to different ethnic groups.

These include : Addis Ababa, Afar, Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz, Dire Dawa, Gambela, Harar, Oromia, Somali, Southern nationalities and peoples, Tigray, Sidama and Southwest Ethiopia. Thanks to the PFLT's major role in overthrowing the government and creating the EPRDF, this ethnic group, which represents only 6% of the Ethiopian population, has dominated the EPRDF coalition that has governed the country from 1991 to 2019.

In addition to this domination within the EPRDF, Tigray has asserted itself in the country thanks to Meles Zenawi, of Tigrayan origin, who was President of the country from 1991 to 1995 and then Prime Minister from 1995 to 2012, a former Ethiopian President of Tigrayan origin. In 2018, the new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, of Oromo origin, decided as soon as he came to power to dissolve the EPRDF, replacing it with a new political organization, the "Prosperity Party", whose TPLF leaders, attached to the old structures and excluded from certain positions, refused to join the ranks.

They then found themselves in opposition for the first time since the end of the authoritarian regime in 1991.

The Prime Minister was then accused of wanting to govern alone and to exclude members of the TPLF from power.

He was also accused by Tigrayan politicians of marginalizing the country's Tigrayan minority.

In addition to this institutional change, Abiy Ahmes was also quick to declare peace with and normalize relations with Eritrea.

From 1998 to 2000, the two countries were at war, when Meles Zenawi was still Prime Minister.

Tigrayans also played an important role in this war, firstly because of the ethopian Prime Minister of Tigrayan origin, but also because of the region's proximity to Eritrea.

So, with the conflict over but tensions still running high, the Tigrayans blamed Abiy Ahmes for his proximity to Eritrea. Tensions between the government and the TPLF reached a climax in August 2020, when the government decided to postpone the general elections due to the country's health situation, prompting criticism from the Tigrayans, who decided to organize their own regional elections.

This was seen by Abiy Ahmes as a sign of independence on the part of the region, and he declared: "In flagrant violation of the Constitution, the TPLF adopted its own illegal electoral law, an illegal electoral commission and organized an illegal election in which it won all the seats in the Regional Council." II – Course of the conflict The conflict in Ethiopia officially began on the night of November 3 to 4, 2020.

The Ethiopian government accused TPLF forces of attacking several military bases in Tigray in order to acquire weapons.

The federal government and its allies therefore launched an offensive to take control of Tigray.

The Prime Minister presented the offensive as an internal security operation aimed at dismantling the TPLF and regaining control of the province. Events initially seemed to prove him right.

In December 2020, federal forces took control of Mekele, the capital of Tigray.

Following this victory, Addis Ababa installed a transitional government in the province.

However, fighting continued in the rest of Tigray throughout the spring of 2021 between federal forces and the resistance movement organized by former TPLF cadres: the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF).

By June 2021, the balance of power had shifted in favor of the TDF, whose fighters had retaken most of Tigray, including Mekele, and advanced into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.

In response to this advance, the government declared a state of emergency throughout the country, and succeeded in pushing back the TPLF, which retreated back to its home region of Tigray. On March 24, 2022, the Ethiopian government declared a humanitarian truce to allow the delivery of aid to Tigray. On August 24, 2022, after a 5-month truce, fighting resumed in the border areas of Tigray.

The government and the FLPT accused each other of being responsible for the renewed fighting.

In August, September and October 2022, the Amhara region on the Tigray border was the scene of fighting between the FLPT and the federal government.

The Tigrayan troops were finally pushed back into their region at the beginning of October.

On September 1, 2022, the TPLF accused the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments of having launched an offensive from Eritrea, thus opening up a new front in northern Tigray. On October 21, the TPLF and the Ethiopian government announce their participation in peace talks convened by the African Union in South Africa.

Finally, on November 2, 2022, the two parties signed a ceasefire agreement in Pretoria.

The peace treaty ending the conflict was signed on November 12, 2022. III- The main players in this conflict In addition to the TPLF and its Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF), as well as government forces, this conflict has revived old quarrels, and many new players have joined in.

Generally speaking, all those who had a grievance against the TPLF and its past governance of Ethiopia lent their support to the federal government.

From the outset, Eritrea, which still hasn't forgotten Tigray's responsibility for the war with Ethiopia, was quick to join in the fighting, sending armed forces to support the government.

Some specialists even claim that Eritrea and Abiy Ahmed prepared for this war as soon as he came to power, meeting after their reconciliation.

In addition to Eritrea, the regions of Amhara (with the Amhara militia) and Afar bordering Tigray have sent militias to support the government.

These regions share the same animosity towards the Tigrayan communities, often due to the policies put in place during their time in government and what they see as a power grab. These alliances have always been very simple, given the involvement of what might be called a common enemy. Tigrayan allies include the Oromo Liberation Army (ALO), which joined the fighting in October 2021 and launched offensives against government forces alongside the FLPT.

It fought both alongside the Tigrayan insurgents in the Amhara region and alone in Oromia, where it seized large swathes of territory.

After the signing of the Treaty of Pretoria, the ALO lost its ally and became the main preoccupation of the Ethiopian authorities.

Throughout the latter part of 2022, the Ethiopian army, aided in particular by the Amhara, drove the group out of the towns and communications routes it had occupied. IV- Views and interests of both parties This civil war is a war of power.

Tigrayans represent only 6% of the Ethiopian population, yet for thirty years they held all the country's levers of power.

To the point of engendering resentment and jealousy within other communities, notably among Oromo and Amhara nationalists. For the Ethiopian government, the war is justified as a response to what it sees as a rebellion orchestrated by the TPLF.

Abiy Ahmed is seeking to re-establish the central authority of the federal government and put an end to the contestation in the Tigray region.

Politically, he also aims to pursue democratic reforms and create a more unified Ethiopian nation, replacing the previous ethnic system largely dominated by Tigrayans. The TPLF, for its part, was historically in power in Ethiopia.

The war is seen as a struggle to preserve the political and economic influence it once held.

TPLF members see the central government's perceived marginalization as a direct threat to their interests and political heritage. Armed resistance is a response to this perceived marginalization and the desire to maintain significant regional influence. Before the start of the war, Tigray's desire for independence was becoming more and more widespread, arousing the fear of the central government.

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